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Oil Market Webinar

Opening up the taps. Is this oil price war different?  

Oil producers were expected last week to take extra measures to prop up oil prices to combat the impact of coronavirus on the global economy and fuel demand. But a meeting of the OPEC+ alliance fell apart. Now Russia and Saudi Arabia are racing to lift output in an effort to grab market share from each other. Oil is down a third to $35 a barrel.

Listen to Refinitiv's oil market webinar with John Kemp, Reuters Senior Energy Commentator, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Reuters EMEA Energy Editor and Ranjith Raja, Head of MENA Oil & Shipping Research in a discussion chaired by Richard Mably, Head of News Performance at Refinitiv.

Key discussion points:

  • Why did the Saudis and Russians fall out?
  • How is the U.S. shale industry situated to cope compared to the last oil price fall in 2014-2016?
  • How does this price collapse compare to others in 2014-16, 2008-2009, 1998-1999, 1986-1987?
  • How might this play out? Who will blink first?  
  • Who is best placed financially and politically for an oil price war? How long might a production free-for-all last?
  • What does it mean for the oil majors? Which companies are best and least prepared to weather a price war?
  • What does the global supply-demand balance look like for this year?
  • What are the best/worse case scenarios for oil demand from coronavirus?
  • Does a low oil price derail efficiency gains and the shift to renewables in the transport industry?
  • What does market structure look like, will there be a big contango play?  What does that mean for the tanker industry?


MODERATOR: Richard Mably, Head of News Performance - Refinitiv

Richard Mably joined Refinitiv in January as Head of News Performance after 33 years as a financial reporter and editor, 25 of them at Reuters where he specialised in energy and spent many happy years chasing oil ministers at OPEC meetings. He was Global Commodities and Energy editor at Reuters from 1997 to 2013, editor for Europe, Middle East and Africa from 2014-2016 and Global Editor for Financial Markets, Commodities and Energy from 2017-2019. Before that he worked for Lloyds of London Press, Platts – where he set the cash price of Brent before futures took off – and AP-Dow Jones.
John Kemp, senior energy columnist - Reuters

John Kemp is a senior market analyst focusing on oil and energy. Before joining Reuters in 2008, he worked as a market analyst for Sempra Energy Trading, now part of JP Morgan. His career started at Oxford Analytica, a consulting firm, where he specialised in the world economy and trade. He’s now seen more than one entire boom-bust cycle in the oil business first hand. He has a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of Oxford.
Dmitry Zhdannikov, EMEA Energy Editor - Reuters

Twice Pulitzer prize finalist for Iraq and Libya reporting, Dmitry has been running Reuters’ energy coverage in London across Europe, the Middle East and Africa for the past 10 years with particular focus on OPEC policies. Prior to this, Dmitry was chief economic editor for Reuters in Moscow covering energy, equities, forex and bond markets across the former Soviet Union for over a decade.
Ranjith Raja, Head of MENA Oil & Shipping Research 

Capt. Ranjith heads the Refinitiv Oil & Shipping Research for the Middle East and North African market, with a primary focus on Oil flows and shipping data. He and his team formulate research and market insights by generating trade flow analytics which enables real time trading information and operational intelligence. The team specializes in vessel tracking and generates big data for the mid-stream and down-stream oil markets including the marine sector by utilizing algorithmic and predictive modelling. Prior to Refinitiv, he was sailing as a Master Mariner and has sailed with leading ship-owners on their tanker fleet. Post sailing, he was managing the commercial operations for a ship-owner in West Africa and heading the technical management for the fleet. Capt. Ranjith holds a Bachelors in Nautical Technology followed by an MBA from the Richard Ivey School of Business in Canada.

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